Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Gold Ounce Price vs. DXY Index

 


There has always been an inverse relationship between gold price and the dollar. One of the measurement scales of the demand for the dollar is the DXY index, which is the average index of the dollar equivalent of 5 countries’ currencies. If the DXY index is increasing, it means that the demand for dollars in the world is increasing. As can be seen in the graph, the reverse relationship between the dollar DXY index and the gold ounce price in the last year is quite clear. With the DXY rising, the gold price is falling and vice versa. The DXY index has started to decline accordingly, as the reserve currency of the dollar has weakened more and more, and gold has started to attack. This was an expected development.

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Central Bank Digital Currency

 

The monetary system is changing as a natural target of technological development. The time to say goodbye to fiat papers and coins is near. In this new financial system, when the economy starts to shift to digital environments, money cannot be expected to remain in its old form. In addition, we know that in the old system, the intermediary financial structures that created the money, namely the commercial banks. With the digitalization of money in the new system, it seems that commercial banks are coming to an end, thanks to the digital money issued by central banks.

It seems that most of the seigniorage revenues of these structures will be included in the state budget, thanks to the state’s control of the money in digital form to a large extent. Thus, we will open our accounts directly in the central bank. According to some, it seems that the state’s control in the financial world will expand thanks to the change in the form, printing and control of money. In this way, it is inevitable that all commercial and economic activities are reshaped and the control of capital and the way it is created will change.

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FED Balance Sheet in the Monetary Crisis Process

 


We see the balance sheet of the US central bank Fed in the chart. After the 2008 crisis, the Fed printed approximately 4 times the amount of money it printed in 200 years. The balance sheet, which was around 800 billion dollars until 2008, increased to 3 trillion dollars after the 2008 crisis. As of March 2020, when the first wave of the great financial crisis we were in came, it increased its balance sheet, which was around 4 trillion dollars until then, to 7 trillion dollars. At the beginning of the crisis, Covid gave money directly to the unemployed households in the economy that was closed due to the 19 epidemic, using a method called “helicopter drop”. Here we understand once again that every money printed since 1971, when money was cut off from gold, is a debt, a debt of interest. This debt was borne by the state in Japan and to the public in Switzerland.

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Global Debt

 


Information showing the ratio of total government debt to global production (GDP) globally is given in the graph. When we look at the chart, we see that the total global government debt was 2.28 times the total production in 1999, 3 times in 2009 and 3.19 times in 2019. This globally increasing debt gives an idea about how fragile countries are in the financial crisis we are in.


I suggest you also read my “global debt” article on this subject. Global Government Debts-to-GDP Ratio

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Friday, July 30, 2021

Indebtedness of Countries

 


State indebtedness rates are given in the table. According to the table, the top five most indebted states are Japan, Greece, Lebanon, Italy and Singapore. Japan, the most indebted country, owes its annual output approximately 2.37 times its GDP. Then Greece follows with 1.77 times, Lebanon 1.51 times, Italy 1.35 times and Singapore 1.26 times. The USA ranks eleventh with 1.07 times. This ratio is 0.33 in Turkey (www.tradingeconomics.com/country-list/). We may wonder how developed countries such as Japan and the USA survive with these indebtedness rates.

One of the important pillars of the smooth running of things in the economy is the continuing trust in the country’s currency and the acceptance of the country’s currency in the international arena. Another reason why the indebtedness is so big is not a problem is undoubtedly the strong industrial production of these countries. In Japan, interest rates are “0”, if it is 1, there will be difficulty in paying the government debt and the risk of the economy collapsing.

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Gold and Silver

 

We entered the first phase of the period that the world will call the “worst financial crisis” last March 2020. The main cause of this crisis is the system itself. We are approaching the end of the global unlimited money experiment we have experienced since 1971, when the dollar as a reserve currency was completely disconnected from gold. In order to better understand the fiat money system (fiat paper money, currency) we are in, we must first understand the system known as the gold standard, in which money is printed based on valuable commodities such as gold and silver. One of the reasons for the global financial crisis we are in and is at the beginning is that we do not know the difference between the exchange tool called fiat money (originally called currency) and money (commodity, money, which is limited and has its own intrinsic value), which we use as cash and is printed unlimitedly. Fiat money has features such as being a medium of exchange, being a unit of value calculation, being portable, divisible, and being the same as its counterparts. In fact, money also has an intrinsic value like gold and silver, apart from the above. Throughout history, whoever owns more gold has made the rules.

About 5,000 years ago, Egyptians began using gold and silver as cash. The gold and silver coins paid to the workers when the Egyptian pyramids were built are still in circulation today. Therefore, gold is the only item that has not been thrown away in history. One of the reasons why it is gold and not another mine is that it can be processed easily. Why gold when there are other easy-to-work metals? Historical documents also mention a side of gold associated with God. Therefore, the answer to this is a subject of long and detailed research that cannot fit here. Around 700 gold coins were converted into coins for the first time before Christ, increasing their availability as currency. Prior to this, gold had to be weighed and checked for purity while processing. B.C. In the 6th and 7th centuries, a lot of gold and silver called “electrum” was used and trace amounts of money produced from a mixture of platinum and copper were used. The earliest known electrum coins, Lydian and East Greek coins were found under the Temple of Artemis in Ephesus and are dated to the last quarter of the 7th century BC (625-600 BC) (Kurke, L. (1999). Gold: The Politics of Meaning in Archaic Greece, Princeton University Press.).

Today, gold and silver continue to be real money. Although the value of real gold is suppressed by marketing paper gold and paper silver issued in derivatives markets, this cannot be continued for a long time. It is inevitable that these precious metals will attain the values ​​they deserve in the near future.

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Cashless Society

 

In the information economy, the digitalization of money as in production systems leads to a gradual decrease in the use of cash in economic transactions. In fact, it is costly in cash production, transportation and storage. In the Figure, the increase rates in non-cash transactions in major countries between 2015 and 2016 are given. The country with the largest decrease in cash usage is Russia with an increase of 36.5%, followed by China with 25.8%. In the USA, this rate increased by 5.7%. In short, although the transition from cashing out varies significantly between countries, it is actually almost global.

In the new economic system where money has entered the digitalization process, the concept of “Cashless Society” has become a frequently discussed concept. The cashless society, in short, is a situation where all kinds of financial transactions are made electronically in the digital environment, not with the usual physical banks and coins (Chakravorti and Mazzotta 2013). For example, the bill submitted to the US Senate in June 2020, the bill, code S3571, briefly passes the following topic: “The bill includes Federal Reserve Banking’s digital transition accounts for residents and citizens and businesses residing in the United States (i.e. Among other things, these accounts are required to provide certain banking services to eligible individuals who choose to deposit funds into these accounts, including access to covid-19 (i.e. 2019 coronavirus disease) and payments. These accounts may not charge fees or it may not have balance requirements and must provide a specific interest rate.

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