Showing posts with label Digital currency. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Digital currency. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Central Bank Digital Currency

 

The monetary system is changing as a natural target of technological development. The time to say goodbye to fiat papers and coins is near. In this new financial system, when the economy starts to shift to digital environments, money cannot be expected to remain in its old form. In addition, we know that in the old system, the intermediary financial structures that created the money, namely the commercial banks. With the digitalization of money in the new system, it seems that commercial banks are coming to an end, thanks to the digital money issued by central banks.

It seems that most of the seigniorage revenues of these structures will be included in the state budget, thanks to the state’s control of the money in digital form to a large extent. Thus, we will open our accounts directly in the central bank. According to some, it seems that the state’s control in the financial world will expand thanks to the change in the form, printing and control of money. In this way, it is inevitable that all commercial and economic activities are reshaped and the control of capital and the way it is created will change.

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Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Digital Currencies, Bitcoin and its effect on financial and economic market of USA

 

An empirical study, Johansen Co-integration test, stationarity, long term relationship

In this article, we will look at the effects of Bitcoin on the American financial market . In fact, digital money can basically be examined in two categories. The first is produced by financial companies and the other is produced by non-financial companies.

As I mentioned in my previous article, credit cards issued by banks can be an example of digital money of financial institutions. The common markets of financial institutions for this type of digital money also serve under the name of internet banking.

As mentioned at the beginning, the effects of bitcoin on the American financial and economic market are studied in this article. In addition, in the analysis, before and after the crisis were examined separately on the basis of the 2008 crisis.

In the study, in which the Bitcoin price was taken as the dependent variable, the variables thought to be explanatory were the ounce gold price, DXY Dollar index, Mortgage index, 10-Year Treasury Rate, Federal Reserve Index USA and 10-Year Bonds.

The model was simply created as follows:

lnBitcoint= b0 + b1 lnGoldt+ b2 lnDollarindext+b3 InMortgageindex+b4 InTreasury rate+b5 10-Year bonds yield+b4 InFederal Reserve Index + et

Differencet-statistics1%5%Probt-statistics1%5%Prob
Level-0.5589-3.67017-2.506230.8665-2.25148-4.3543-3.50140.4459
LBitcoin          1st Difference-6.7288-3.57782-2.92530.0000-6.9899-4.1653-3.50850.0000
Price
Level-2.1368-3.5744-2.92370.0687-3.1161-4.1611-3.50360.0976
LGold Price1st Difference-3.4762-3.5777-2.92510.0096-3.3994-4.1609-3.50810.0432
LDollarLevel-1.6458-3.5847-2.92810.0908-3.8138-4.1756-3.51630.8769
Index1st Difference-7.6874-3.5885-2.92970.0049-5.2701-4.2118-3.52970.0006
LMortgageLevel-1.9598-3.5744-2.92370.3048-1.9310-4.1678-3.50360.6228
Index1st Difference-3.8325-3.5777-2.92510.0196-6.7676-4.1657-3.58850.0347
LTreasuryLevel-2.9134-3.6104-2.93890.0529-2.9991-4.2118-3.52970.1454
Index1st Difference-4.1656-3.6155-2.94110.0038-6.6736-4.2191-3.53300.0190
LFederalLevel7.62134-3.3442-2.56421.00003.8732-4.2923-3.58341.0000
Reserve1st Difference-0.3265-3.6754-2.54670.9094-1.7634-4.6678-3.77810.0129
LBondLevel-2.1277-3.6793-2.76670.2217-2.5832-4.5853-3.57860.2872
Yields1st Difference-4.0543-3.6895-2.76890.0041-3.9938-4.8723-3.98230.0209

The test results are as seen in the table.

Variables were examined on a daily basis.

 

In the table, it is seen that all of the variables at the level contain unit root. The first differences of the data are stationary with 5% significance level. The Johansen cointegration test is applied to the series which are stationary at the same level as the cointegration test. This study was conducted to find possible cointegration between seven variables, Bitcoin price, Gold price, Dollar index, Mortgage index, Treasury index, Federal reserve index and bond yield, which were found as I(1) and Johansen tests. Thanks to this technique, the dependent variable is Bitcoin price, while the gold price, Dollar index, Mortgage index, Treasury index, Federal reserve index and bond yield are independent variables. According to the results of the test, it was understood that there was cointegration confirming the long-term relationship between the variables.

Finally, we can run a constrained VAR model, which is VECM (vector error correction model), if the variables mean cointegrating, meaning they move together in the long-run association-ship. This model shows the term C (1)>> Error correction…… If C (1) is negative and significant (p value <5%), we can say that there is an Adjustment Speed ​​towards Equilibrium in two issues. There is long-run causality from independent variables to dependent variables.

From Bitcoin price means a long-term relationship with Gold price, Dollar index, Mortgage index, Treasury index, Federal reserve index. Bond yield has a negative relationship with Bitcoin price.

Also read” Digital Currency, Bitcoin (Volume 1)

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Digital Currency, Bitcoin

 

Is Bitcoin making a significant impact on global financial transactions? (Volume 1)

Digital currencies can be considered as important technological developments that transform the money-based economic system we are in. So what exactly is this thing called digital money? Can Bitcoin-like currencies be considered as a revolt against the central authorities? Or rather, is it a revolt against the management of money and many economic and social activities from central structures, imposed by the money economy-based capitalist system that has been going on for nearly three centuries?

We can say that credit cards and debit cards used in shopping in daily life are digital currencies created by the banking system. On the other hand, non-financial institutions can also produce digital money without the need for regulatory standards. In this way, new types of currencies can be created. Right here, Bitcoin is a sophisticated type of digital currency used for payments and money transfers made by non-financial units online without the need for financial institutions to be a third party or intermediary.

We can say that the concept of digital currency began to be expressed for the first time with DigiCash, which was established in 1990. Money transfer companies such as PayPal followed suit. Thus, it has become an indispensable element of internet shopping more and more on a global scale with the opportunities brought by the developing technology and the widespread use of the internet. In 1998, although the creation of a decentralized digital currency like Bitcoin was started to be considered, the work continued for a while when it did not give the desired results such as reliability and verifiability.

In 2008, the outbreak of a global financial crisis brought the concept of digital currency back to the agenda. The outbreak of the crisis was a kind of opportunity. For the first time, the dream of creating a decentralized financial system with digital currency was becoming a strong possibility.

There are digital currencies with different complex technologies that are starting to appear in the financial markets today. Digital money was defined by the IMF in 2008 in two main categories. One of them is hardware-based digital currency while the other is software-based digital currency. An example of a hardware-based digital currency is credit cards issued by banks. Software-based cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, are those used for remote transactions.

Blockchain-based Bitcoin software, developed by a software developer, whose pseudonym is said to be Satoshi Nakamoto, together with a group of software developers, came to the fore in January 2009.

Blockchain technology, in short, is a peer-to-peer network type and a technology that terminates duplicate transactions with transaction records of all users made with cryptography. The system is decentralized, making hacking difficult but not impossible.

What makes Bitcoin privileged is that it is a decentralized currency that cannot be controlled by any group. Despite what it may seem like, we’ve only recently seen a market fluctuating with a tweet from investors like Elon Mask, who owns large amounts of Bitcoin.

In February 2017, there were about 720 cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin made up about 80 percent of the cryptocurrency market. As of February 2017, the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies was around $19 billion, with the top 15 currencies accounting for more than 97% of the market, with 7 of them contributing 90% of the entire market cap.

When we look at the academic literature, we see that there are a significant number of studies on Bitcoin. These studies gained momentum as of 2012. Most of these studies are done in engineering fields. The most emphasized subjects in the studies are on the technical infrastructures of cryptocurrencies. Some of these studies are briefly as follows: Ryan Farell examined the cryptocurrency market using the “consensus mechanism” in his study published in 2015 (Ryan Farell (2015). An analysis of the cryptocurrency industry. Wharton Research Scholars; http://repository.upenn.edu/wharton_research_scholars/130). In the study, it was emphasized that the Bitcoin industry is quite reliable against major thefts.

The first payment transaction using Bitcoin was among the users of the “Bitcointalk forum” in 2010. In this transaction, two pizzas were purchased with 10000 Bitcoin. As of January 1, 2011, one Bitcoin was worth $0.30, with the total market cap exceeding $1 million. Bitcoin peaked at around $20,000 in December 2017 and accompanied the rise in popularity of the cryptocurrency. December 2018, 2019, 2020 reached $3743.91, $7301.07, $27036.69 respectively.

Finally, as of July 2021, it is at the level of 33 thousand dollars. The total value of the market is at the level of 1 trillion dollars as of the same month. Although it is still far below the total value of the global financial market, its progress is remarkable.

In my ongoing articles, I will share the academic study results of Bitcoin’s contribution to the financial market, please stay tuned.

Source: https://arzualvan.com/digital-currency-bitcoin/

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